According to SRP data, Germany will win the World Cup, with ease, but if you want to pick a seasoned also ran then take a look at Switzerland. Newbies that you might want to also consider include South Korea and Japan. But before we get too granular, the analysis is best conducted by group.
Based on a selection by the International Football Federation (FIFA) and reviewing data between 1 January 2017 and 15 June 2018, Group F offers the most excitement to structured products aficionados, with Germany, South Korea, Mexico and Sweden. In a thriving market of nearly 10 million products and almost half a trillion of sales, Germany brings the most experience, although South Korea, the young pretender and the biggest structured products issuance market in 2017, will rely on the power of over 200,000 products and sales far in excess of half a trillion euros equivalent to stake its claim.
The other members of the 'Group of Structured Products', Mexico and Sweden, will struggle when showing only 30,000 and 14,000 products and €65 billion and €50 billion of sales. In any other group, they may have had a look in - not this one.
Further analysis of how these teams will fare requires a look at their star payoffs and star players. While Germany consistently hits the spot with a rather defensive collection of payoffs that include leverage with stop loss and protected trackers along with the thrill of the reverse convertible, it will rely on star players led by BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and Vontobel. South Korea's offering will thrill with sharkfins, steepners combined with knockout protected worst-ofs. Mexico's best players are all local and they might surprise with dual currency, range accruals and bull bears; Sweden will likely fail to thrill with its uncapped calls, credit defaults and fixed upsides, although it does boast Goldman Sachs in attack.
Expect little from England, which will most likely get smudged out by Belgium's near €200 billion of sales and 50,000 products. Nearer on sales volumes than product numbers, England (wearing a UK strip) remains too reliant on foreign imports, with its best players Societe Generale, Investec and Natixis and a far too predictable reverse convertible style. Watch out for Belgium after the group phase: although mostly local players and a payoff array dominated by leverage long with stop loss and bull bears, it has flip flop uncapped calls in its armoury.
Group A is Russia all the way, although a longer stay in the tournament is unlikely with its 700-plus products and €300m-odd of sales: it's unlikely that the odd snowball will make up for a team too heavily reliant on Kit Finance and Commerzbank.
Spain has more sales, but Portugal has more products in Group B and the smaller nation can also boast podiums and altiplanos alongside its digital worst-ofs. Also entirely comprising locals as star players, Spain still has much to offer and could surprise with the cliquets and ladders that sit alongside its knockout reverse convertibles.
France stands head and shoulders above Australia and Denmark in Group C, with a quarter of a million products and a quarter of trillion in sales, primarily from SG, BNP and Natixis. Australia might surprise with lookback reverse convertibles or portfolio insurance uncapped calls and a smattering of best-ofs from UBS, Citi and Sequoia Nominees, as may Denmark with a few snowballs and Credit Suisse as an accomplice to Danske Bank and Nordea.
Favourite of many, Brazil might just qualify as second best in Group E, but appear too far behind Switzerland to be taken seriously. But watch out. Although boasting less than 5,000 products and under €10 billion of sales, this is a new market and can wow with exotica that includes sharkfins and anapumas alongside its digitals; BNP and Morgan Stanley are the best players that need to perform. Switzerland will rely on reverse convertibles, leverage with stop loss and capped calls from local player Vontobel but also star players Citi and HSBC.
Poland should qualify from Group H, but it is hard to see the 5,000 product-strong country and its €28 billion of sales proving enough to take it above Japan. Maybe the surprise package, with Svensk Exportkredit, Kommuninvest Sverige, Kommunalbanken as star players, Japan will rely on dual currency, worst-of and digitals to take it beyond the group stage. Poland's longevity will likely depend on whether star players Bank Zachodni, Raiffeisen Centrobank, Alior Bank can produce enough range accruals, sharkfins and barrier reverse convertibles to sustain a challenge.
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